The Premier League title has come down to a three-horse race, and the same amount of teams have been left to battle it out at the bottom.
One club has long been cut adrift and, with 16 points from 34 matches, Sheffield United’s immediate return to the Championship is a matter of when, not if.
Above them, Burnley and Luton Town look set to follow them back to the second tier, but a mini-renaissance in recent weeks for the former and season-long fighting spirit from the latter have kept their fleeting hopes alive.
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Those hopes have been helped significantly by a combination of points deductions and poor performances for Nottingham Forest. Everton, meanwhile, have given themselves eight points worth of breathing room after consecutive victories.
Here we break down who can be relegated and when.
| Pos | Team | GP | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | 34 | -12 | 33 | |
17 | 34 | -18 | 26 | |
18 | 34 | -28 | 25 | |
19 | 34 | -32 | 23 | |
20 | 34 | -59 | 16 |
When can Sheffield United be relegated?
Defeat to Manchester United on Wednesday evening has left Sheffield United one game away from dropping back into the Championship.
If they lose away to Newcastle United on Saturday, their fate will sealed regardless of results elsewhere.
Chris Wilder’s side are playing for pride (and pride only) at this stage, as even a run of four consecutive victories to end the campaign is unlikely to save them.
While they will not set the record for the worst points tally in Premier League history (Derby County’s 11 points in 2007-08), Sheffield United have set the record for the most goals conceded in a 38-game Premier League season. The four goals they conceded at Old Trafford moved their tally onto 92 — that infamous Derby team only leaked 89.
They will not be welcomed back with open arms by the EFL either, as a two-point deduction awaits them on their second-tier return.
Which clubs are safe?
If 18th-placed Luton win their four remaining matches, they will accumulate 37 points.
That means every team from Crystal Palace in 14th and above are mathematically safe. Brentford in 15th are almost certainly safe but three points will make sure of their top-flight status.
Luton are unlikely to pick up the full 12 points, but only one of their final four matches is against a top-half, side so a return of seven or eight points is far from improbable.
What about Everton, Forest, Luton and Burnley?
This is where the real jeopardy lies.
Here is how Opta views each team’s chance of survival.
| Pos | Team | Survival | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|
16 | 99.9% | 0.1% | |
17 | 64.2% | 35.8% | |
18 | 28.3% | 71.7% | |
19 | 7.5% | 92.5% |
A controversy-steeped 2-0 win against Nottingham Forest and a famous victory in Wednesday night’s Merseyside derby has moved Everton within touching distance of safety.
Where Forest are concerned, Sunday’s defeat — which left a bitter taste in their mouths as they feel they were denied three penalties against a direct relegation rival — has left them one point and one place above the drop zone.
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They face Manchester City on Sunday, so could feasibly end the weekend in the bottom three. Although, for now, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have their fate in their own hands and, as long as they can keep Luton and Burnley at bay, they will be safe.
Luton, meanwhile, need a two-point swing in their favour to overhaul Forest. Consecutive 5-1 defeats, against City and Brentford, have severely dented their goal-difference tally.
As for Burnley, they need to leapfrog two of the teams above them to stay in the Premier League. Their most likely route to survival would consist of taking three more points than Luton from their remaining games of the run in (all while bettering their goal differences) and four more points than Forest.
That sounds a tall order for Vincent Kompany’s side, but they are the most in-form team in the relegation zone having lost just one of their last seven games.
| Pos | Team | GP | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 6 | +3 | 9 | |
2 | 6 | -2 | 7 | |
3 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
The remaining fixtures involving those three teams look like this:
Matchday 35
- Manchester United vs Burnley
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- Wolves vs Luton
Matchday 36
- Burnley vs Newcastle
- Luton vs Everton
- Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest
Matchday 37
Matchday 38
- Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
- Luton vs Fulham
… and points deductions and appeals?
Ah yes, the elephant in the room.
What has felt for a long time like a completely avoidable situation is still likely to have a big say in the relegation battle.
Everton have had two separate points deductions: one that was reduced from 10 points to six and another two-point deduction that is under appeal.
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Nottingham Forest are also awaiting the outcome of an appeal for a four-point deduction of their own. The hearing for that appeal began on Wednesday, though it is unclear when a final decision will be made.
Premier League guidelines state that appeal processes must be completed by May 24, five days after the final day of the season. The league’s intention is to have both appeals wrapped up before the last round of matches, but there is no guarantee that will happen.
So, off-field decisions could have as important a say in the relegation battle as matters on the pitch, which is hardly a glowing endorsement for what many consider to be the best league in the world.
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(Top photos: Getty Images)
